//首頁非頭條 所以新增16==447
//17==>照片 18==>影音 19==>人物 20==>NOW區 21==>美食 22==>"首頁"(為了index_template.htm)
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"國際","大陸","地方","生活","消費",
"評論","頭條","資訊","拔辣","汽車",
"旅遊","首頁","照片","影音","人物",
"NOW區","美食","首頁","愛犬","新東陽",
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//次版ID
//首頁 芭樂 汽車 沒次版 但為了include pageview click 所以加入 999 998 997
//20080717 NOW區 汽車 新次版 116 117
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32,34,36,38,40,
51,111,42,998,38,
100,111,112,113,0,
116,117,111,40,111,
120);
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"89","90","91","92","94",
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"941");
?>
if(ereg("www.ettoday.com",$_SERVER['HTTP_HOST']))//ettoday 要轉成nownews
{
echo "
";
}
if(ereg("ettoday.com",$_SERVER['HTTP_HOST']))//ettoday 要轉成nownews
{
echo "
";
}
if($_GET["banner"]<>"non"){
?>
}
?>
//上方廣告
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"833","831","834","835","836",
"842","828","840","0","841",
"842","0","0","0","0",
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?>
【台股看板】盤面氣氛欠佳忌短線進出 持股水位不逾5成
(2008/09/07 17:29)
記者楊伶雯/台北報導
台股半年報公佈,指標性廠商對前景紛紛採取保守態度,引發法人對企業獲利是否還有下修空間的疑慮,投資信心不足,反映在近期類股輪跌格局上,ING投信投資管理處執行副總黃媺芸指出,現階段盤面氣氛欠佳,投資人應嚴守均衡佈局原則,持股水位不宜超過50%,且忌短線進出。
黃媺芸表示,由於現階段景氣能見度有限、盤面氣氛欠佳,且前波相對強勢的電子股缺乏實質利多支撐,投資人應嚴守均衡佈局,不偏袒某一次產業原則,緊抱高度競爭力的大型龍頭股,忌短線進出。
但黃媺芸也提醒投資人,考量台股各項價值面指標都已處於歷史低檔,且當前盤面氣氛十分悲觀,融資追繳話題再度攻佔媒體版面,這些歷年來台股相對低檔區的訊號正陸續浮現,此時殺低也非明智之舉。
黃媺芸指出,近期台股的類股輪跌態勢明顯,半年報公佈,鴻海集團獲利大幅衰退,加上戴爾電腦(Dell)對後市展望保守,衝擊電子股走勢;油價大幅回檔引發原物料股殺盤;大眾電信跳票案到DRAM產業的未爆彈,都使金融股呆帳疑慮再起,三大族群輪跌,對多頭造成打擊,但背後的主因,應是盈餘下修壓力。
黃媺芸表示,根據經驗法則,空頭市場的主要特色就是盈餘(Earning)及本益比(PE)都出現下修壓力,但現階段台股沒這麼糟,至少目前本益比已經處於相對低檔,不過市場對當前的盈餘水準普遍抱持懷疑態度,這才是問題所在。
黃媺芸舉例說,上半年市場對2008年台股盈餘成長年增率預估仍有13%(已計入員工分紅費用化),如今僅剩3%,連能見度最佳的NB族群也受部分人士質疑,投資人信心難免受到影響,不過,目前判定NB大勢已去過於武斷,畢竟全球出貨成長維持15∼20%的穩定年增率並不困難。今年NB出貨不佳,有很大原因歸咎於四川震災使英特爾晶片廠後段封測受到影響,導致低價NB所需的Atom處理器供貨不足,如今已逐漸順暢,因此,應先看NB組裝廠與鍵盤廠的10月出貨數字後再做判斷。
黃媺芸強調,換句話說,電子股的季節性行情不是不到,只是時間問題,此時投資人不宜貿然追殺NB相關權值股。只是,考量季節性需求終究不如殺手級應用來得令人興奮,也不建議投資人側重電子股,最好維持各產業均衡佈局,並控管持股水位,靜待底部訊號來臨。
if($kid==0){
include("/filer/common/ver8/whoknows_8.htm");
}
else if($kid==4){
include("/filer/common/ver8/whoknows_49.htm");
}
else if($kid==3){
include("/filer/common/ver8/whoknows_47.htm");
}
else if($kid==1){
include("/filer/common/ver8/whoknows_10.htm");
}
?>
include("/filer/common/ver8/hot_tags_II.htm");?>
//Goyou 討論區
if($kid==1){
?>
}
?>
//上段廣告
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334,162,329,327,1138,
142,91,339,91,11253,
153,0,0,0,11492,
11493,11494,0,11495,0,
11507);
?>
include("/filer/common/ver8/focus_hot_".$board_id[$kid].".htm");?>
include("/filer/common/ver8/focus_news_".$board_id[$kid].".htm");?>
//版面分類 22==>為了平衡 head.php
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"旅遊","首頁","照片","影音","人物",
"NOW區","美食","首頁","愛犬","新東陽",
"寵物");
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